SHORT-TERM RAW MATERIAL PRICE FORECASTS
All actors must have reliable 3 or 6-month price outlooks if they are to make decisions to purchase, sell or hedge on such highly volatile markets.
That is why we have established short-term forecasts using models tested on 7 years’ monthly data allowing commodities and energy product price trends to be anticipated over 3 months from current or past values for a certain number of leading indicators that are forerunners of their change (order books, freight, stock levels, exchange rate, etc.).
Such forecasts are presented in the form of quarterly or bimonthly reports, the frequency of which is established by the user company, and cover:
- Recent market trends and predictive indicator values
- Price forecasts for these materials backed up by recent leading indicator trends
Summary of outlooks and forecasts
- International economic climate (activity and trade)
- Recent specific price determinant trends: short-term demand and supply indicators
- Short-term price forecasts
Example
of raw materials
Bullish trend until summer 2005
Demand from the main copper-consuming countries (China, United States and Japan) remains very high and is still causing significant tension between supply and demand for copper ore. This situation, confirmed by the fact that LME stocks are in a bearish trend, reaching their lowest level ever (45,000 tonnes at the end of March), and accentuated by speculation on copper should lead to prices remaining high in the second quarter and at the start of the summer..
